EDITOR’S NOTE: This story originally appeared in Kidscreen’s October/November 2022 magazine issue. As Christmas draws closer, and the industry heads into a more COVID-free holiday sales season, toy expert Christopher Byrne weighs in on what kids care about most. By looking at what’s new, and what’s constant, he aims to predict what could sell well in the next month as well as into 2023. 

As we bear down on the holiday selling season for toys—the “hard eight,” as the two-month sales push in Q4 is often called—bets have been placed, retail sets and online storefronts are ready to go…and everyone’s fingers are crossed for good measure.

As I write this in the waning days of summer, no one can accurately predict which toys will sell. But it is possible to look at trends shaping how kids play, and what that might mean for companies in the holiday season.

The metaverse: Forgive a little crankiness, but where kids are concerned, this is just a fancy word for online play. Roblox and Minecraft are the leading platforms, and kids are spending lots of time on them. Marketers are responding by embedding advertising and even creating their own games, but as tracking service Backlinko notes, there are currently 40 million active Roblox games. So you still have to get kids engaged, and that likely means some form of traditional marketing.

As kids socialize more online (in addition to IRL), brands and properties need to implement strategies for engagement, play and sharing kid-generated content on these platforms.

Representation: With diversity growing in importance as a cultural value, kids and families are looking for toys—and dolls, in particular—that reflect diverse identities. Not long ago, companies were hedging their bets with “racially ambiguous” offerings, allowing the child to project onto the doll what they wanted to see.

This is classic play, and it’s still valid with characters. But there is also room for literal representation of different races, as lines like The Fresh Dolls (pictured) have demonstrated. This may change some product strategies because of potentially smaller audiences. But addressing specific niches may offer points of difference in the market, as well as more potential for creating products.

We’ve also been hearing from parents that they’re looking for different expression of gender in toys. This is a growing awareness—not huge yet, but worth considering. Even when boys and girls gender-identify in traditional ways, parents are beginning to look for toys that aren’t prescriptive. It’s all about a child’s freedom to express themselves authentically without being told that they “should” be one thing or another.

Sustainability: We will continue to hear a lot about this, but it’s primarily a concern for older consumers. If a child wants a toy, they don’t care whether it or its packaging is from sustainable sources. That said, parents are definitely paying attention.

Entertainment: From everything we can see, particularly with properties like Bluey and CoComelon, what’s resonating with kids now are characters and storylines that reflect their real world, rather than a fantasy world—and that’s what they want to take off the screen and play with.

Stories about home, family and friends are what kids are selecting as they choose what and when to watch in this on-demand era. Plus, shorter, “snackable” content provides more flexibility as limiting screen time becomes more prevalent since the pandemic.

There is one constant in all of this: Toys reflect the world children live in—they always have, and they always will. Understanding how kids perceive that world—and what’s influencing their perception—remains the best way to encourage play (and, ultimately, boost sales).

Christopher Byrne (a.k.a The Toy Guy) is a toy expert, consultant, author and co-host of The Playground Podcast.